Government Announces a Decrease in Knife Crime: Check the Reality of the Figures

The government has pointed to a recent fall in knife crime as evidence that its strategy is working.

Headline figures show a reduction in offences, with the latest data indicating a 9% fall to 50,430 knife-related offences in the year ending September 2025. On the surface, this suggests progress. But is it?

The reality behind the percentages is more complex and more concerning.

Only months earlier, figures for the year ending March 2025 showed 53,047 offences, a reduction of just 1%. By June 2025, that fall had widened to 5%, before reaching the current 9% decrease.

This does indicate a gradual downward trend, but it has to be accepted that this is from a very high starting point. Even now, England and Wales still record around 50,000 knife offences every year. To highlight why the 50,000, figure is important you need to compare to other countries.

Countries such as Germany, France and Italy typically record knife-related violent offences in the low thousands each year, meaning England and Wales’s figure of around 50,000 is significantly higher in absolute terms. This underlines just how large the problem remains.

This is the key issue often missing from government messaging. While percentages are falling in the short term, knife crime remains significantly higher than a decade ago, following years of sustained increases.

A reduction on a large number is still a large number.

Nowhere is this more evident than in England’s cities.

London remains the centre of the crisis, with over 16,000 knife offences annually, accounting for roughly one third of all incidents nationwide. Its rate of around 182 offences per 100,000 people, is far higher than any other area. The West Midlands, Greater Manchester, and parts of Yorkshire and the North East also continue to record persistently high levels.

These patterns have not shifted. Knife crime remains concentrated in urban areas facing deprivation, youth disengagement, and drug-related activity. While some areas have seen modest improvements, others, such as Avon and Somerset, have experienced sharp increases in recent years, showing how the problem can spread when underlying conditions are not addressed.

The nature of knife crime also tells its own story.

Around 85% of offences involve robbery or serious assault, not just possession. In the year to March 2025, 205 people were killed with a knife or sharp instrument, including 52 victims under the age of 25. These figures have fallen slightly, but remain deeply concerning. Research published in 2023 by the Youth Endowment Fund found that around 4% of young people aged 13–17 in England and Wales, the equivalent to more than 140,000 teenagers (That is around 1-25) reported carrying a weapon, including knives. The 4% could be the same now*.

There are signs that increased policing and targeted interventions are having an effect. But this leads to a difficult question.

If more police officers and resources are now contributing to reductions, what does that say about the impact of previous cuts?

Recent recruitment drives and visible policing initiatives ‘suggest’ that capacity is being rebuilt after a period of underinvestment. For the Workers of England Union, this is a critical point. Progress is potentially being made, but it is being made because resources are being put back in, not because the problem has fundamentally gone away.

As Stephen Morris, General Secretary of the Workers of England Union, puts it:

“If these figures show anything, it is that when you put resources in, you see results. But we are still dealing with the consequences of years of cuts. If the British Government are serious about tackling knife crime, they need long-term investment in policing and communities for England. The problem still exists. The challenge now is not to celebrate a marginal drop, but to recognise the scale of the issue that remains and to commit to the sustained investment needed to address it.”

Why it is important to Treat Crime figures with a degree of caution. 

Police-recorded data depends on reporting and recording practices, while many victims never come forward meaning the true scale of crime could be different than official figures suggest. 
Official statistics provide an important guide, but they are not a complete picture. Differences between what victims’ experience and what is reported and recorded by police mean these figures should be seen as indicative rather than definitive.
While crime data helps track trends, it is shaped by reporting rates and police recording standards. As a result, the figures are best understood as a baseline guide, not a full account of the reality on the ground.

Knife Crime by City/Area (2024–2025)
(Rates per 100,000 population)

References

(Office for National Statistics (ONS) – Crime in England and Wales (Year ending March, June and September 2025 releases), Home Office, Police Recorded Crime Data, House of Commons Library  Knife Crime Statistics, NHS England  Hospital Admissions for Assault by Sharp Object, Youth Endowment Fund (2023) Behind the knife crime statistics: understanding children who carry weapons. The Telegraph (2024) One in 20 children has carried a knife outside the home, plus different media outlets)

*The latest available research still shows around 4% of young people carrying weapons, with no updated national data in 2026 indicating a significant fall, suggesting the underlying drivers of knife carrying remain in place despite recent reductions in recorded crime.