England’s baby bust is not just cultural, it’s fiscal, structural, and urgent. England and Wales’ total fertility rate fell to a record low of 1.44 children per woman in 2023, well below the 2.1 replacement level, and live births only ticked up slightly to 594,677 in 2024 after several years of decline.
What do lower birth rates actually mean and what impact does that have on the economy?
Fewer births now mean fewer workers and taxpayers in 15–25 years’ time, raising the old-age dependency ratio and squeezing public finances. The Office for Budget Responsibility warns that lower future population growth reduces tax revenues and leaves governments with a smaller fiscal pie to pay pensions, the NHS, and social care.
From a Trade Union perspective, the effects are uneven and stark. Counties already struggling with low pay and early mortality such as parts of the north-east and some Midlands areas are projected to see the steepest falls in pupil numbers and working-age populations.
That accelerates local service cuts, and staffing shortfalls in the very places that can least afford them. Parliamentary analysis highlights these geographic vulnerabilities and the long lead times policymakers face.
The economic model problem
Low fertility isn’t just about fewer babies, it’s about the imbalance between those producing tomorrow’s workforce and the rest of society. Parents bear the direct costs of raising the next generation of taxpayers, carers, and skilled workers, while the benefits are shared by all.
If the tax and benefits system fails to recognise that, it penalises families and undermines the very economic base we rely on.
Global competition for workers
This is not just an issue that affects England and Wales. Most OECD (Co-operation and Development Organisation for Economic) countries now sit below replacement fertility, the demographic shock is global, with the lowest rates seen in parts of southern Europe, Japan, and Korea. The implication: competition for younger workers will intensify internationally, and sustaining per-person living standards will become increasingly difficult.
Why supporting pregnant working mothers matters
From a campaigning standpoint, Trade Unions have a direct stake in ensuring pregnant workers get the support and benefits they are entitled to and that they can keep working if they choose. This is about fairness, but it’s also about economic sense.
Losing skilled staff to inadequate maternity protections or workplace discrimination wastes training investment, reduces tax receipts, and pushes families into hardship.
Proper enforcement of maternity rights, liveable paid leave, flexible working, protection from redundancy during and after pregnancy, and workplace adjustments keep experienced staff in jobs.
For Trade Unions, this means bargaining for workplace policies that go beyond the legal minimum, challenging discriminatory practices, and ensuring members claim their full maternity pay, statutory maternity allowance, and related benefits.
Policy and urgency
However policy alone won’t solve this. Housing reform, affordable childcare, and fairer tax treatment are essential, but workplace and societies views on pregenacy matter too.
If having children is seen as a career setback or a financial gamble, birth rates will keep falling, regardless of subsidies. The WEU is helping to change this narrative by campaigning for workplaces where parenthood and career progression go hand-in-hand.
There’s also a time factor: even if reforms worked tomorrow, it would take nearly two decades for those children to join the workforce. That means delay today becomes economic pain tomorrow. Acting now is not optional, it’s about future-proofing the economy and the movement itself.
The WEU call to action
Falling birth rates are already reshaping public finances and local economies in England. Trade Unions must push for a “family-positive economy”.
An economy that treats raising children as a shared national investment, not a private luxury. That means fighting for decent wages, secure jobs, affordable housing, strong maternity protections, and workplaces that genuinely support working parents.
This isn’t just about protecting members now. It is about ensuring there is a next generation of workers and taxpayers to keep the economy, public services, and our future protected.